“Welcome… to the world of tomorrow!!”
Ahem. So, a few things will definitely happen in 2009, like the sun completing another orbit around our planet, Obama being sworn in as President of the US and me writing this post. Well, all of them should happen at least. But what about the other stuff? What about… the unforeseen future??
Let’s make some wild predictions and see how we do, eh?
Before you rush off to the bookies, by the way, these predictions are entirely guesswork on my part. Possibly educated guesswork, but not insider-trading style guesswork. Honest.
Known MMOGs
Champions Online will get released this year… but will still slip, probably to Q4. It’ll attract a solid 250K subscribers at launch. Oh: it won’t release on Xbox 360 at launch, either.
DC Universe Online won’t get released, but will go into some sort of Closed Beta… probably about the same time Champions launches… and will announce a ‘solid’ release date in 2010.
City of Heroes will get a major product announcement. 5th anniversary aproaching? Rival super-MMOs releasing? Hel-lo, sequel.
Guild Wars 2 will finally get some marketing love; think videos, some press demos, at least. But no release date.
Jumpgate: Evolution will debut and attract a nice, solid 85K subscribers. We won’t be able to confirm or deny this though, as Codemasters are releasing it.
(I’ve skipped plenty of other current MMOGs because either I don’t know enough about them to predict anything, or there’s no point. “I predict… World of Warcraft will gain subscribers! OoooOOOOooohh!!”)
Unknown MMOGs
Cryptic’s third, unannounced MMOG will be announced as a quasi-pulp game, set in the 1930s, featuring Indiana Jones style global hijinks and monster battling. Hey, I can dream.
Red 5‘s unannounced MMOG will be announced as a… fantasy game! (Boy, I’m pushing the boat out.)
38 Studios‘ ‘Copernicus’ will also be announced… as a dark fantasy game! (Yeah. I’m playing the short odds.)
NCsoft will finally take the wrapper off the Carbine Studios project.
Blizzard won’t announce anything new. At all. Why bother?
The Games Industry in general
The Wii will end up so far ahead of PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in sales terms, industry watchers will stop even mentioning it in sales figures. (They’re practically doing this already.)
Microsoft will drop heavy, unsubtle hints about the next Xbox. But won’t announce it, officially, until 2010.
PlayStation Home will get a major revamp by Q4… but will still be a complete flop.
Activision will announce a Guitar Hero product that’ll have a ‘massively multiplayer’ component. Think: your band versus everyone else’s band in the world. There will be additional fees involved.
No-one in the business of MMOGs will pay much attention to articles like this over at Massively. (Sorry, Massively.)
Me, personally
I’ll end up moving to the US of A.
I’ll make a public announcement about why I’m moving to the US.
I’ll make a public appearance (Oooohh!!) at a US-based gaming show or two.
I’ll keep blogging here, perhaps not as often as in 2008 though.
I’ll keep playing World of Warcraft. I know! I’m sorry!
Right: now start throwing things.
#1 by Gangrel at January 4th, 2009
Champions Online: Cant disagree with you here, and i dont think it will have the “impact” on the CoX brand that some players are prediciting (dooom™)
DC Universe Online: When they actually get all the people involved to talk to be on the same page, then we might know something, but 2010 sounds good to me (look to above though)
City of Heroes: Best prediction I have heard, and definately something to look forward to. Maybe something similar to Guild Wars 2 of when you can take achievements (maybe even your existing character) over to the new game.. another “CoV” styled release as well.
Guild Wars 2: Been too quiet on this front, we *know* its coming, just want to know something at all about it. Too quiet on this front though.
Jumpgate: Evolution: Cynical over Codemasters? Surely not… but yes, i do share similar thoughts as well. Probably wouldnt attract 85K though, it does depend on their subscription model though (and how many Eve players are willing to give it a shot)
One that you missed though was “Aion” (i was honestly waiting for you to comment on this one)
Will release in Europe/NA; wont be the HUGE hit that NCsoft are expecting for the the Western market, but likely to get about 200K subs at launch (IF, and i mean IF they advertise it hard).
Am intrigued by Carbine Studio’s though… i seriously wonder how much we will hear, and if it will get closed down in development hell etc…
I agree with most other things you posted as well…
Shame you are leaving the UK, but if its for work reasons then its best for you…. will miss you and you *will* have to have a leaving party as well (tell us and we shall come, oh yes we shall)
#2 by Extremus at January 4th, 2009
How are you finding WoW and what are you playing?
Also Blizzard will announce something, but it’ll just be the next WoW Expansion. I dunno, World of Warcraft: Underwater Seal Extravaganza.
#3 by Rockjaw at January 4th, 2009
@Gangrel: I didn’t forget Aion, but I didn’t want to comment on it either. Too many good people are relying on that game. It deserves to do 200K but I’ll be impressed if it does.
(NCsoft has never had a Western game above 160K (ish) in subscriptions, and that was CoH at peak. Sold more boxes than that – Guild Wars, hello – but not active, paying subs.)
On Guild Wars 2, btw – I think they’re just keeping quiet because they don’t want to give anything away. Look at WAR: a bunch of their announced features ended up in WoW. I don’t think the GW team want the same thing to happen to them.
@Extremus: I’m playing a Dwarf Hunter, which is great for solo’ing. I started as research, but it’s hooked me quite hard, I have to say.
#4 by FarSpace at January 5th, 2009
Sounds about right to me Rockjaw, btw if move to the U.S. I hope one of the reasons will be because you will have some awesome job that makes you lots of isk
and money too. Or whatever is good for you.
About Aion I predict it will be better then I thought it would be, it really seems like they are taking some good ideas and talent from what NCSoft knows already and that flying thing is actually going to be working out pretty well, like parts of CoX, Guild Wars and Lineage put together. I predict it will make for a great combo of PvPvE, but they will learn from any mistakes that I suppose were made with other games they have had.
I’m looking forward to GW 2 but I just got into GW 1 so I don’t mind waiting a year and 1/2 for GW2
I’m taking a brake from CoX for a while but I’ll be back in 2009
I also predict in 2009 that more games will wave the monthly fee, because for example, I would still be playing CoX, but 1 time a week or 2 is not worth the $15 for any game. And I predict some game companies might see that in order not to loose people all together for most of the year at a time.
About WoW, it is at least just as awesome as any other mmo, I would play it if I was not so interested in these other games and I just have not gotten to it yet.
I predict the anouncment or leak of a Star Craft mmo too
anyware from WoW’s 5 to 10th year.
#5 by Extremus at January 5th, 2009
Alliance? Pah, I thought you were cool. Hunter’s are rad though, and yeah, WoW has a pretty sharp hook when people actually take the time and have a play with it. It’s sickening because, honestly, it’s not *that* awesome, at least, not until you get quite a few levels under your belt.
As for Aion, well, it depends when it launches. Right now I don’t think a subscription based MMO (especially one with a distinctly asian feel) will get the numbers it needs in ’09. I’ll be there though, the whole flying/pvp/item customisation thing really interests me and, well, it looks snazzy!
#6 by Shadowe at January 6th, 2009
*sneaks on while no one is looking*
Nice interesting set of predictions, there. I think it will be worth keeping an eye on them, to see how many of them come true.
Not sure I believe you on the “not insider-trading style guesswork” thing, though
Moving to the good ol’ US of A is a heck of a step. Just remember that the 4th of July is the day on which they celebrate their independence… and the day we celebrate having got shot of them.
I’m still harbouring the deep belief that (despite the dire predictions of some of the CoH forum-goers) CO will launch in a whirl of hype and excitement… and then be a bit of a damp squib as they try to do too much with it, and fail to do any of it *well*.
You may keep playing WoW (aren’t I gracious?), as long as you pop into CoH every once in a blue moon and see how it’s going.
#7 by Crimson_Archer at January 15th, 2009
Blimey… are you still writing this?!
Pretty safe predictions all round there, I reckon. I do think we’ll see more MMOs moving into different territories/genres though (think western, steampunk, pulp, etc).
I also predict that CO will be given a lukewarm review by Eurogamer…
Good luck in the States, RJ, and make sure you keep in touch!
#8 by Mark at January 21st, 2009
See you at those US game events, Mr. Rockjaw!