Posts Tagged 2010

That’s Twenty-Ten to you soldier. (Still finding it hard myself.)

Well, a year to the day since I made some outlandish predictions for Twenty-Zero-Nine, here I am back to make a fool of myself for 2010. I’m a year older, a year wiser (ish) and probably going to be a mite more cautious, especially after what I’ve seen this year.

Let’s dive in though, see what the scrying pool has to tell us.

One caveat: being currently employed as I am, and wanting to stay that way, I won’t be ‘predicting’ anything to do with Trion World Network (my employers until October this year) or Gazillion Entertainment (my current employers). So no predictions for (deep breath) Heroes of Telara or any other Trion game in production, or Jumpgate: Evolution, LEGO Universe or anything else Gazillion has in the works which we haven’t told anyone about yet…! Sorry ’bout that, but I reckon you understand.

Known MMOGs

World of WarCraft‘s latest expansion, Cataclysm, will launch in September, or very close to that (last week of August/first week of October). Backed by a huge global marketing campaign (TV adverts, etc etc) Activision-Blizzard will attempt to convert the last few humans living in a cave on the moon into active players by pushing – hard – the fact that the game is now easier to get into than ever. It’ll be a massive, towering hit at launch, breaking the current (US, NPD-data) records for fastest selling PC game. A month after launch, everyone who’s played for more than a year will find something to complain about.

Star Wars: The Old Republic will launch in Q4 as well, probably about two months after Cataclysm (say, November). EA’s marketing machine will be in full effect from E3 onwards, pulling out all the stops to get as many people into the Beta as possible, which everyone will call the ‘most polished since WoW’. Bloggers will spend endless amounts of words talking about whether SWTOR will topple WoW; of course it won’t, but it’ll launch huge, falling just shy of Cataclysm’s newly-established record for fastest-selling PC game. Naturally, we won’t hear a thing about subscriber numbers until EA’s first financial report in 2011… so I can neatly dodge predicting them. (Although I will say, they’ll be less than WoW’s…!)

Star Trek Online will launch on time in February, and will get plenty of early traction from Trekkers who’ve spent many a long year waiting for a chance to indulge their inner captain. Think 250K box sales in the US alone… but a month after launch, despite Cryptic/Atari keeping very quiet about the actual numbers, the retained subscribers will be less than 100K. We’ll all be guessing about this though. Reviews will be in the fair-to-good range, depending on the level of Trek-love the reviewer has.

APB will launch on time, with a big marketing push from EA. It’ll start strongly but will quickly be derided by ‘hardcore’ MMOGers as just being ‘CounterStrike with better customisation’. Realtime Worlds will promise a lot of exciting stuff post-ship, and will probably get a chance to do it, as their initial numbers (customers? subscribers?) will be decent. Talk of a 360 port will be mostly drowned out by whoops of joy from those of us already playing Crackdown 2 / MAG.

DC Universe Online won’t launch this year, but it’ll spend another summer doing the comic book convention circuit. I have to hope it’ll be in some form of Beta by the end of the year. Surely. Said Beta will be PC-only though, leading many to predict it’s never going to ship on PS3.

City of Heroes will launch Going Rogue, which will be generally well accepted, and give a small shot in the arm to the game’s subscriber base – undermining Champions Online a little in the process.

Guild Wars 2 will be demonstrated to press, behind closed doors, at E3. The previews are strong, mostly based on graphics and a few demonstrable features, but press are unsure if they’ll let it be called a ‘proper’ MMOG. The game will be playable at PAX in Q4, and the first public ‘preview event’ dates will be announced for 2011.

Aion will continue to suffer from bots and gold farming galore, although NCwest will try their best to make their finger-in-the-dam approach to controlling them look tough. The actual reason the bots and gold farming exists – the massive in-game grind – won’t go anywhere. NCsoft will continue to make enough money from Aion in Korea to keep it afloat elsewhere.

Unknown MMOGs

Blizzard will continue to not announce their next MMOG project. They’ll be too busy launching StarCraft 2, Cataclysm and pretending that Diablo III is ‘coming soon’.

I think it’s put-up or shut-up time for 38 Studios, Red 5 and Carbine Studios. All three of them should really be taking the wrappers off something this year. Having said that, if somehow all three have gotten funding for what we (read: marketing people and journos) like to call a ‘triple A’ MMOG, then it’s quite possible they’re on a 3-5 year development schedule. If that’s the case… then assume they’ll stay quiet for a while longer. (Still, it’s got to be getting pretty close to announcement time. Takes time to build a big community to get back that big funding.)

What else; oh yeah, SOE will announce a new game based on the Free Realms ‘engine’ but with a known IP. (Thus helping them earn back some of the big development costs on Free Realms.)

Me, personally?

All I’m going to say about me to finish, is that I hope 2010 is a slightly more quiet year than 2009.

See you in 362 days to find out if I’m right!